In the US, Powell’s guidance during the FOMC meeting on the last day of January regarding their intention to stay put at the March meeting was proven wise by the slew of strong data throughout February, and by resurgent concerns of inflation stickiness.
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The year started with markets convinced that the Fed would start cutting its key interest rates as soon as March, giving a probability of 97.5% to such an outcome on January 1st.
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With all eyes on the Fed, December’s FOMC meeting proved far more exciting than the expected decision to hold rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% pointed to.
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Tous nos voeux de santé et de bonheur pour cette nouvelle année. We wish you a Happy Holiday season, and a healthy and prosperous New…
LEARN MOREThe month of November started with an FOMC meeting where the Fed kept its key policy rates on hold at 5.25%-5.5% for the second meeting in a row, in a unanimous decision.
LEARN MOREFrom a human standpoint, which is without doubt what we should start with, the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7th and its aftermaths are uniquely horrendous.
LEARN MOREIn the US, inflation seems to be gradually normalizing. The highly scrutinized CPI came just above expectations for August, mostly due to energy and airfares, but the disinflationary trend is not invalidated with core CPI down from 4.7% to 4.3% y/y.
LEARN MOREThe month of August culminated in the closely scrutinized Jackson Hole Symposium, where Powell’s speech was expected to give more clue on how the Fed intends to handle the recent resilience of the US economy.
LEARN MOREJune started with the removal of a key tail risk for markets with a deal on the debt ceiling in the US. The can has been kicked post-presidential elections with the ceiling suspended until January 2025.
LEARN MOREThe month of May started in the US with the closely watched FOMC meeting. After 500bps of cumulative hikes since March 2022, Powell signalled that the end is approaching – or maybe already here – by omitting in the official statement that “some policy firming may be appropriate”.
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