The trade war continued to dominate headlines in May. While U.S. negotiations were successful with the United Kingdom (a general 10% tariff, with steel and aluminum exempted) and a deal with China is emerging (lowering tariffs from 145% to 30% on Chinese goods entering the U.S., and from 125% to 10% on U.S. goods going to China), discussions are progressing more slowly with Japan and India.
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A month marked by trade war. It was with great pomp and the characteristic emphasis of his personality that Donald Trump reignited his tariff crusade against the rest of the world on Liberation Day, last April 2.
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In March, Donald Trump’s trade threats continued to weigh on the American economy. Businesses and consumers fear that the president’s enacted tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as well as autos were only a first step and that stringent measures against Canada, Mexico, China and the EU could materialize quickly.
LEARN MOREEmployment started the year on a good note in the US. In January, the American economy added 143 000 jobs (vs +170 000 exp.) but this slight underwhelming on the most scrutinized figure of the report did not encapsulate the good health of the labour market.
LEARN MOREFor its inaugural interest rate decision in 2025, the Fed decided to maintain the Fed Fund rates in their 4.25%-4.5% range in a unanimous vote. This outcome was widely expected after 100bps cuts in the past 3 meetings.
LEARN MOREAs expected, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps, bringing the Fed Funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%. With this move, the FOMC wraps up a 100-bps easing in 2024.
LEARN MOREThe return of Donald Trump to the White House could already be felt in late November PMIs which featured the strongest Composite since April 2022 (55.3 vs 54.3 exp.), on the heels of soaring Services (57 vs 55 exp.).
LEARN MOREIn the US, GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annualized pace in Q3. The ability of the American economy to climb the wall of uncertainty is impressive and recession fears are in the rearview.
LEARN MOREAfter sending signs of weakness in the midst of the summer, the US economy has -once more-proved doomsayers wrong. Positive developments in the disinflation process have revived hopes of a soft-landing.
LEARN MOREIn the US the Fed decided to start its lowering campaign with a 50bp bringing the Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%.
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