Investment letter — November 2023
From a human standpoint, which is without doubt what we should start with, the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7th and its aftermaths are uniquely horrendous.
LEARN MORE
From a human standpoint, which is without doubt what we should start with, the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7th and its aftermaths are uniquely horrendous.
LEARN MORE
In the US, inflation seems to be gradually normalizing. The highly scrutinized CPI came just above expectations for August, mostly due to energy and airfares, but the disinflationary trend is not invalidated with core CPI down from 4.7% to 4.3% y/y.
LEARN MORE
The month of August culminated in the closely scrutinized Jackson Hole Symposium, where Powell’s speech was expected to give more clue on how the Fed intends to handle the recent resilience of the US economy.
LEARN MOREJune started with the removal of a key tail risk for markets with a deal on the debt ceiling in the US. The can has been kicked post-presidential elections with the ceiling suspended until January 2025.
LEARN MOREThe month of May started in the US with the closely watched FOMC meeting. After 500bps of cumulative hikes since March 2022, Powell signalled that the end is approaching – or maybe already here – by omitting in the official statement that “some policy firming may be appropriate”.
LEARN MOREThe labour market was still tight but softening in March, with 236k jobs created, a high number compared to pre-Covid norms, but less abnormal than has been the case in some recent instances.
LEARN MORE
François possède une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté dans le domaine du priority trading sur actions et options, puis s'est concentré sur…
LEARN MOREThe month of March 2023 will certainly be one to remember with the failing of a few US midsize banks, and turmoil around Credit Suisse (CS) triggered by a statement of one of its largest shareholders, the Saudi National Bank, ruling out further investment.
LEARN MOREFebruary started with the Fed slowing its pace of monetary tightening to 25bps, taking Fed fund rates to 4.5%-4.75%.
LEARN MOREThe transition from 2022 to 2023 was marked by continued prospects of slower growth in the US while Eurozone’s particularly gloomy expectations at the end of last year have markedly improved thanks to collapsing gas prices and Chinese reopening.
LEARN MORE